HIGH-LOW OMAHA 8-OR-BETTER PROBABILITTIES
Odds of Making A Low Taking The Hand To The River
| Holding | Flop | 4th St | River |
| A-2-3-4 | 13-2 (13%) | 9-5 (36%) | 4-5 (55%) |
| A-2-3-J | 7-1 (12%) | 2-1 (33%) | even (50%) |
| A-2-Q-J | 12-1 (7%) | 4-1 (20%) | 8-5 (38%) |
This tells us very little. Going all-in with A-2-3-4 offsuit against A-2-3-4 double-suited leaves you with no wins at all, just praying one of the two three flushes doesn’t come up. If the final board is A-2-3-4-5, then you’ll be quartered off by 2-3-6. For this reason, you need A-A-2-3 or a close approximation to charge all-in before the flop. It is perfectly reasonable to raise once to clear out the fellow-travelers, but a monster is required to go to the table.
Odds of Making A Low If The Flop Shows Two To A Low
e.g. You hold A-2-3-4 and the flop is Q-8-7
| Holding | Making It 4th St | Making It 4th &/or 5th St |
| A 2 3 4 | 4-3 (43%) | 1-2 (68%) |
| A 2 3 J | 6-5 (45%) | 3-7 (70%) |
| A 2 Q J | 2-1 (34%) | 3-4 (57%) |
If you hold just A-2 with no high potential, then you may end up being quartered, especially if there is more than one opponent. Calling with one card to come just to make a low is appalling. This table makes it look as if A-2-3 is a better hand than A-2-3-4. This is quite wrong. You are much more likely to make a straight or high with the four-card hand than just three cards.
OUTCOME OF TWO HANDS ALL-IN PREFLOP
With 8-6-4-2 offsuit against K-K-Q-Q double-suited, each hand will garner half the money in long run. The low draw scoop (wins both ways) 24%, wins the low 34%, and wins high 9%. If kings-queens hand is unsuited, the other hand wins 53% of the money.
My thanks to Dr. Mahmood Mahmood for help in deriving these figures, which are useful in shaping out good poker strategy. Any errors are mine.
If we hold A-2-K-10 on the Q-8-7 flop, then we are only four to three against making the low. But we way end up being quartered off, especially if there is more than one opponent. Calling a bet with one card to come just isn’t on.
We hope you are now convinced A-Q-9-2 isn’t much to write home about. A-Q-Q-2 is superior. Here you have a high hand made. You may get three-quarters of the pot with a flop such as 8-7-3. But beware of an 8-7-2, which counterfeits your low. You may end up with neither end of it.
LONDON LOWBALL, RAZZ, & 8-OR-BETTER STUD
The statistics for the low end of it are identical for razz poker and eight-or-better stud, and can be compared with the London game. In London lowball, the best low is 6 4 3 2 A, as both straights and flushes count high. In razz and eight-or-better stud poker, a holding of 5 4 3 2 A is the monster. These latter two games are seldom played pot-limit in America, but they are in England. The chance in any of these games of starting with three to an eight-low in the first three cards is sixteen percent, about one hand in seven. The probability of making an eight-low or better at each point during the deal when starting with three unpaired low cards is given in the following table.
PROBABILITY
| London lowball | Razz or 8-or-better | |
| By Card 5 | 12.6% | 13.6% |
| By Card 5 or 6 | 23.7% | 25.4% |
| By Card 5, 6 or 7 | 33.3% | 35.6% |
PROBABILITY OF MAKING AN EIGHT-LOW OR BETTER WITH CERTAIN HOLDINGS
| Razz or 8/ B or | London Lowball | London Lowball(only) | |
| 6 4 8 A | 6 4 3 2 | 5 4 3 2 | |
| Card 5 | 33% | 25% | 17% |
| Card 5, 6 | 56% | 44% | 13% |
| Card 5, 6, | 70% | 55% | 42% |
PROBABILITY OPPONENT’S HAND IS FLAWED AT LONDON LOWBALL
| You hold (7-4) 2-9 | |
| Opponent (??) 5-6 | 52% |
| Opponent (??) A-6 | 25% |
We assume he started with at worst three to an 8 low. By flawed, we mean he has paired or has four cards to straight (open-ended or middle-pin). If your opponent bets the pot with 5-6 here, you are not erring by raising all-in. If he bets small, he has you over a barrel. He may be very strong or very weak. (X A) 5 6, where X is a 2, 3, or 4, constitutes a monster against your hand.
We hope you realize four cards to a nine-low is unplayable in high-low even with no qualifier. The reason an eight-low was selected as the break-off point for setting what is needed for a qualifier is it normally takes at least this much hand to win pot, whether forced to by the laws of the poker game or not